The Ripple Effect
A lot has happened since trucking deregulation back in 1980. The average OTR trucker made $48,200 back in 1984 when the full force of deregulation was just starting to take effect. In 2013 the average OTR driver 
made $37,700. The average OTR career lasts about 3.2 years. Only 18% of the OTR drivers out here now have been out here for more than 6 years. Those numbers are stark and they stop you in your tracks.
Before deregulation took effect drivers generally got paid for all of their time at work. When we ceased getting paid for that time we learned to hide it as off duty. In order to maximize our production we saved those hours to use as drive time. We got good at it. Our individual ton mile production went up. At the same time our wages went down. We continued along the path of short term thinking. We had payments that needed to be made. It is hard to feed your 401k, when you can't pay your mortgage. Long term thinking and planning took a back seat to monthly payments.
The problem grew as facilities figured out that holding up truckers had little or no cost. It was cheaper to hold
a truck and driver, than to hire more fork lift drivers. The supply chain became less efficient. Overall efficiency took a back seat to profitability. In a true free market system contributions to overall efficiency change, positively or negatively, to the profitability to each link along the chain. The constant churning of drivers, especially at the bottom of the food chain prevent the free market from taking full effect. A well meaning government disturbs the free market by subsidizing driving schools. This practice provides an artificially high number of new recruits. That lessens the economic impact of drivers leaving the industry. It does not lessen the safety impact.
That made me think about my college economic classes. There we learned about the economic ripple effect. Picture calm waters. Pick up a rock toss it into the water. The ripples on the water spread out. Deregulation of the trucking industry may have had just such a ripple effect over the entire economy. Think about it. If a driver's time has no value it will be taken advantage of. Most of us have been held up at a warehouse. There is no dock space because the truck ahead of you was unloaded on to the dock and has yet to be put away. Why? The warehouse does not have enough employees to put the stock away fast enough. Why? It is cheaper for them to make a trucker wait than to ever have one of their employees sit idle.
What if the rock got thrown back in the pond and OTR drivers once again got paid for all of their on duty time? Companies act in their own economic self interest. If we make it more economically feasible for that warehouse manager to have a fork lift driver wait, than for a trucker to wait, that warehouse manager will hire more fork lift drivers. Then they will have to buy more fork lifts. People will be put to work building more fork lifts. Buildings will need to be built to house the increased production. Unemployment will drop. The factors in the supply and demand equation will shift. Blue collar wages will rise. They will buy more stuff. Truckers will be needed to bring them more stuff. As a result the demand side of the supply and demand equation truckers will increase. As a result rates will rise.
We are standing at the edge of the water with a rock in our hands. That rock is the conceived driver shortage. I wonder what would happen if that rock got thrown back in the water. Where would the the ripples take us?