What Will Future Freight Levels Be Like?

A report by the American Trucking Association (ATA) predicts continued growth.  Concerning the report, ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello stated, “We continue to see growth for the entire freight economy – but we also see that trucking will maintain its position as the nation’s dominant mode of freight transportation.”  According to the study, overall freight tonnage will grow 23.5% from 2018 to 2025 and freight revenues will surge 72%.
 

The report predicted that trucking’s share of freight tonnage will grow from 69.1% in 2018 to 71.4% in 2025.  This will be done by truckload volume continuing to grow 3.5% a year through 2019, then 1.2% annually from 2020 to 2025 – however, truckload carriers will make greater use of intermodal rail for intermediate- and long-distance hauls.  That in turn will lead to rail intermodal tonnage growing 5.5% annually through 2019 and 5.1% a year through 2025.  Overall, other modes of transportation – truck, rail and water – will lose market share to pipeline, which will grow from 10.5% to 17.4% between 2018 and 2027 primarily as a result of growth in the U.S. energy sector.

One thing's for sure: trucking will be growing for years to come.  The shifting from brick and mortar stores to online shopping also shifts the fleet usage.  As traditional retailers experience sharp decline in sales and  therefore a subsequent decline in truck demand, the online retailer's explosive growth shifts the need of trucks to their logistical operations.  As the number of Walmart trucks have probably decreased in the last few years, the amount of Amazon trucks have increased exponentially.